Grain futures turned mixed after a higher run in the overnight trade.
May 19, 2026
Grain markets held mostly higher overnight, though the follow-through has been more restrained than yesterday’s stronger move. A softer energy tone has taken some of the lift away from agriculture, particularly after recent strength in crude and related markets helped support renewable fuel values.
The market appears to be pausing rather than reversing. Some traders are locking in profits, while others are reluctant to chase new long positions at current levels. Still, futures are finding support from several underlying factors, including rising weather concerns in South America, firm feed grain demand, and still-attractive processing economics. Soy crush margins have eased slightly but remain close to record territory, while ethanol margins are again pressing toward previous highs.
On the other side of the ledger, rapid U.S. planting progress and rain chances across the Corn Belt are keeping rallies in check. USDA reported corn planting at 76% complete and soybeans at 69%. Soybean progress is roughly three points ahead of last year, while corn is essentially in line.
Trade headlines are also providing some support after the reported U.S.-China agreement, although the lack of direct confirmation from China is notable. Broader geopolitical risk remains part of the market backdrop, with uncertainty tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict spilling over into several markets, including commodities.
Winter wheat ratings took another dip from the prior week, which is becoming old news. The crop is shot, and rain forecasts don’t do much good anymore for Texas, Oklahoma, and Northern Kansas. What it does do is help stop the fires in areas where the rain is expected to fall, but wheat crop development is an afterthought. What wheat needs for a further rally is a sign of price rationing, to hold back exports, while it’s currently concerned about further stories of imports.
It was a lower run yesterday for live and feeder cattle futures after a friendly, gap-higher start. Early strength was quickly reversed, as a consideration that exports to China were increasing was more talk than reality. Yesterday’s close for August feeder cattle was negative and indicates trouble in Tinseltown for the feeder cattle market.
Pasture conditions had worsened in yesterday’s condition report, with 44% of US pastures rated poor/very poor, up from 41% last week and 32% year ago. A large portion of the US cow herd is at risk of being sold, and a possible uptick in cow slaughter if a bit of herd liquidation takes place. There are signs that this is occurring as sale barns in NE, KS, and OK are seeing an uptick in cow sales.
Yesterday, August live cattle ran into resistance at 250-251 and faltered. Support is 242-243. Meanwhile, August feeders challenged their resistance at 363-364 and failed within a minute. Yesterday’s close indicates “on the continuation charts” we have a Head and Shoulders top development that could indicate an initial decline to 352, with failure there signaling the market to 340-343. Yes, I know the cattle buyers will tell you it makes no sense and that you should ignore the futures market. But my job is to acknowledge the futures market, and the charts on August feeder cattle are negative.
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