Grain futures recover from overnight weakness which were inspired by Pres. Trump’s comments, as Black Sea concerns come back to the forefront.

July 17, 2026

Grain Overview

The grain trade is firm this morning after drifting overnight with Pres. Trump made comments in his speech about the Chinese government getting possession of US voter files with names, addresses, and other important data. This created some moderate price softening overnight, which has now given way to new buying interest heading into the weekend as tensions in the Black Sea make headlines again.

Overnight, there was another Russian strike that hit Ukraine’s Mykolaiv port, damaging port infrastructure and three foreign-flagged commercial vessels. Although no additional damage was reported at Russian export terminals, shipping through the Sea of Azov continues to face major disruptions. Every additional attack increases freight costs, raises insurance premiums, and increases the likelihood that importers will begin sourcing grain elsewhere.

The reaction in wheat this week, culminating in Thursday night’s strength, may have been more important than the headlines themselves. Wheat repeatedly refused to follow corn and crude oil lower, despite having every reason to weaken. That kind of relative strength often signals the trade is beginning to price in a developing supply problem rather than simply reacting to outside markets.