Grain futures maintained weakness overnight with volatility.

May 26, 2026

Grain futures opened softer overnight, but fluctuated with challenges of their unchanged marks, as crude oil rose and fell in overnight activity, as the “we have a deal”, “we’re not quite there yet “deal narratives flip.

The Iran War High-stakes peace talks are ongoing in Qatar, even as the US has conducted “self-defense” strikes in Iran. In response, Iran is now threatening to attack US bases in the Middle East. Summary of Key Obstacles: The US is demanding that Iran hand over or dilute its uranium. Conversely, Iran is refusing to sign the Memorandum of Understanding and hand over the uranium before gaining access to frozen funds and receiving relief from US sanctions. The US wants a full reopening, but Iran wants to manage the Strait of Hormuz and collect transit fees. The US also says it disagrees with Iran on the fine print of the MOU and notes it will take some time to reach a final agreement. So, the struggle continues.

For the most part, current US weather is favorable for crop development, but there is some concern about long-range models forecasting higher temperatures. More regions of the US claim they could use some rain, and there is little in the forecast. Last week’s flash sales in corn now have the US total corn commitment for the 2025/26 crop year at 79.9 MMTs, with the USDA’s target at 83.3 MMTs through September 1. As you can see, the USDA will have to increase exports and subsequently lower the crop carryout. This will carry into the new crop and show a tightening in new-crop corn. Let’s not forget that on June 30, we will likely see confirmation of a smaller corn acreage figure, which will further tighten the official carryout number.

Similar to last year, China is now dealing with heavy rains as its wheat harvest starts. Meanwhile, the US winter wheat drought affects 70% of that area, with rain only improving crops if it occurs in Montana. EU weather is now also on the radar, as extreme heat and dryness are affecting the western crop areas, with France being the worst affected. Rain is needed there within 7-10 days, but it is not indicated in any forecast. Russian spring wheat areas are returning to an excessively wet weather pattern, which is likely reducing Spring wheat seedings.

Live and feeder cattle futures tumbled last week on heavy liquidation. A series of events, including the drought increasing cattle liquidation from drought-ravaged pastures picking up at the livestock barns, increasing placements into the feedlots, and Mexico announcing a doubling of its exports of processed beef to the US from its packing plants. Mexico does not have country-of-origin labeling, so the concern is that the recent deal with Brazil to buy beef products could find its way into the US through Mexican beef or imports. With a loss of 1.2 million head of Mexican feeder calves into the US over the last year, that beef is building up in Mexico and finding another way back into the US.

There is also a building concern that the ag Sec. Rollins will not be able to continue to push back on the pressure in the White House to lower beef import tariffs. She successfully pushed back on that narrative two weeks ago, but it’s thought she could be losing the argument. This idea continues to circulate in the Twitter-sphere. Friday’s cattle-on-feed report was considered a touch negative on the placement number, with a wide range anticipated; the number was still 3% above the average guess. Off take from the Memorial Day holiday will be watched as a sign of consumer resistance to recent high-value prices. The heavy discount to the current cash market already reflects a shift toward slower demand as we head into summer.

On the charts, August feeder cattle hit the continuation moving average at just under 346. Trendline support on the same chart comes in at 338.50-339.50. August live cattle on Friday did a double bottom with its April low just under 237.00. Extreme discounts to cash will be the near-term support until the cash market starts to buckle. Feeder cattle have entered into a counter seasonal downtrend. Rallies will likely get sold. 366 is extreme resistance on the August feeder cattle chart now and will be the source of retracement bounces.

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