Geopolitics drive overnight volatility.

March 1, 2026

A sharply higher start welcomed the first trading day of the month for grain futures, as the outside markets of energy and metals provided supporting opening, more specifically, soybean oil. Immediately after the opening, hedge selling hit corn, wheat, and soybeans. By the end of the morning session, wheat showed mixed gains, corn was steady and firm, while soybeans reflected small losses. The soybean crush spread has soybean oil now reflecting over 50% of the value.

This morning, the entire market conversation is centered on geopolitics after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran over the weekend. That escalation triggered classic risk-driven buying overnight, with energy markets opening sharply higher. Crude oil rallied sharply on the open as traders immediately priced in potential supply disruptions in a region that remains critical to global production. At the same time, OPEC members signaled they are prepared to increase output if necessary, adding another layer of uncertainty and, subsequently, the sell-off following the sharply higher opening. As history shows, the duration of any Middle East conflict will ultimately determine how deep and long-lasting the market reaction becomes.