FREE: Wheat extends its correction that began yesterday, while soybeans consolidate.
February 24, 2026
The overnight grain trade was mostly soft, but at the end of the night session, weakness was only in soybeans and Kansas City wheat. Wheat is trying to go into its second day of correction trading after last week’s spectacular rise, while soybeans are consolidating recent gains, frustrating the bearish rhetoric that prices have to go back down.
What is keeping the soybean market in check this morning is strength in crude oil, which is providing support, and the fact that South American production estimates are being put to the test. Rains have slowed the soybean harvest in parts of Brazil, again raising quality concerns, while Rio Grande do Sul, the southernmost state, is likely to experience some acreage abandonment due to extreme drought. Argentina continues to see stress despite some rain last week, as not only soybeans but also corn is struggling under ongoing hot, dry weather. The crop sizes are larger than last year’s, but not to the extent advertised. Also, the delay in soybean harvest puts safrinha corn planting at risk, as a large portion of the crop will be pollinated during the least productive weather window that occurs annually.
Despite all the rhetoric of Pres. Trumps tariffs, it appears that the Ag sector may miss most of the elevated tariffs being applied to trade. But their impact on the overall economy could still become a factor. Imports of beef and other Ag products are kept at zero. The first notice day for all March grain contracts is this Friday, so there may be a tendency for the markets to weaken today through Thursday. If not, then the grains are getting ready for another leg up in early March. If the bears cannot get prices to break now, similar to last week when they had all the bearish news on their side, then what will?
Something to consider. If you look at the stock valuations of a lot of Ag providers (Deere), and even better yet, grain handlers, their stock valuations are either at new all-time highs or crowding decade highs. This is usually a precursor of a better outlook for the ag sector, before the ag sector even knows it. If grains don’t go down when they should, what will happen when they get an opportunity to have news that is friendly?
It was a lower close yesterday for live and feeder cattle futures, this was despite a friendly start after last Friday’s COF report. “Rumors” continue to circulate that the Greeley, Colorado, plant still does not have an agreed-upon and signed work contract with its unions. Concerns grow that the plant could go dark for a while. Also, the US government helped Mexico take out the largest drug kingpin in their country, making some wonder if a favor will not be granted to Mexico, like possibly opening the Mexican border to a limited amount of northern Mexican feeder cattle.
Technical damage occurred to the April feeder cattle contract yesterday, which is a continuation contract on the charts. Just like last week, when I stated April feeder cattle had to rally that day or else risk further collapse, today is the same situation. April feeder cattle have to rally today and close back above 363 to maintain bullish momentum. When momentum is lost, index funds will sell, no matter the story line of tight supplies. They just watch the flow of money. The flow of money is leaving the cattle board. April feeder cattle closed lower for three days in a row yesterday, and bullish markets typically find renewed buying on the fourth day. Any failure to show buying interest today is an omen.
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