Crude oil prices tumbled from overnight highs; another Iranian deal may be in place by Tuesday.
August 4, 2026
Grain Overview
Grain futures are lower this morning after another typical evening, when prices are firm throughout the night until the Euronext exchange opens at 4:00 a.m., and that’s when selling begins both there and in the US, eroding prices. This morning’s flavoring that was used to push prices lower was Treasury Secretary Bessent stating that by Tuesday a deal should be in place with the Iranians and the Strait of Hormuz should be open.
Grain futures found early support Monday evening following another round of disappointing US crop ratings and growing concerns over tightening global supplies. Corn conditions deteriorated more than expected as recent heat and dryness continued to stress crops across several key production areas. With the current weather pattern offering limited relief, traders see little chance for a meaningful improvement in crop conditions over the near term. Soybean ratings held steady from the previous week but continue to trail year-ago levels. June soybean crush and corn used for ethanol production were largely in line with trade expectations.
Geopolitical developments remain an important market influence. While tensions between the United States and Iran appear to be easing, the conflict in the Black Sea continues to disrupt agricultural trade. Ongoing attacks and logistical challenges are limiting Russia’s access to world export markets, providing underlying support to grain prices while raising concerns over global food inflation. Attention is also beginning to shift toward next week’s USDA WASDE report, which will include field-based production data and could provide a clearer picture of this year’s crop potential.
Weather remains a growing concern across Europe, where persistent heat and limited rainfall continue to reduce crop prospects. The hot, dry pattern that has stressed crops in France and Germany is now expanding into Hungary and Romania, with temperatures remaining in the upper 90s and little meaningful moisture in the forecast.
As a result, European corn production estimates have fallen into the 45 to 48 million metric ton range (down from 60 MMT). With domestic supplies tightening, the European Union is expected to become the world’s largest corn importer during the 2026/27 marketing year, with import needs projected to exceed 25 million metric tons.
The forecast for the Plains down into Kansas will see moisture loss again be accelerated when heat returns after August 8. Weather modeling from the EU/GFS/AI showed temps from Texas North into Colorado through Nebraska back in the upper 90s and lower 100s this coming Friday and Saturday. Elsewhere, temps will be mostly seasonal.
Cattle Overview
Live and feeder cattle futures burst higher yesterday morning, attempting to build on recent gains, but early strength faded after key resistance levels were reached, leaving both markets with lower closes. October live cattle hit the 38% Fibonacci retracement on the continuation chart at 229.50, while September feeder cattle tagged the 348-350 resistance zone, right above the moving averages we highlight on our continuation charts. Both will be discussed in today’s video.
Yesterday’s feeder cattle index gained $1.06, finishing at $346.89. Boxed beef was mixed, with Choice jumping a strong $5.35 while Select slipped $1.78. Negotiated cash cattle trade is expected to be steady this week, with last week’s reduced slaughter of just 512,000 head providing underlying support to the beef market.
On the charts, October live cattle have nearby support at 225.75-226.00, with resistance holding at 229.50-230.00. October feeder cattle found hourly support yesterday in the 340.00-341.50 range but continue to face major resistance at 348-350. Another day of pinball-type trading would not be surprising, with those technical levels likely to remain the market’s guideposts.
Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221