August 17, 2026
Grain Overview
The grain trade opened firmer last night, with wheat prices pushing closer to the July highs before turning to profit-taking after stalling out. Meanwhile, corn and soybeans also found strength on excessive rainfall across Illinois and Indiana, while the drought conditions impacting the Western US remain in place. Crop condition data this afternoon should be steady or lower, which will add credence to a reduced crop size out there.
Wheat prices are trading lower this morning, giving back a portion of Friday’s sharp Black Sea-driven rally. At this point, the weakness looks more like profit-taking than a meaningful change in the underlying geopolitical situation. Paris wheat futures are lower on the prospects of the best rain this year allowing for better winter wheat plantings. This is a weak reason for wheat trading lower, as it has nothing to do with near term tight supplies.
Most importantly, there has been no breakthrough in Black Sea ceasefire talks. Russia’s latest position remains its rejection of a limited Black Sea truce, while
