China may be close to reducing tariffs.

May 28, 2026

Grain Overview

Corn and soybean futures moved higher overnight, while wheat traded unevenly across the three markets. The broader grain trade appears to be losing some of the bearish momentum that has weighed on prices. As with any sustained move, sellers need a steady flow of new negative headlines to keep pressure on the market, and that supply of fresh bearish input has become thinner.

There is buzz that China may be close to reducing its 10% import duty on soybeans and 15% on grain in the coming week. They indicated at the trade summit that they would do this but would still leave in place a 3% duty on US grain and soybeans, which they apply to all other grain supplies, to protect their domestic industry.

Outside markets are adding support as well. Energy prices are firmer after overnight U.S. strikes on Iran, with traders once again adding a risk premium. Washington continues to describe the situation as a ceasefire, but the market is not fully accepting that view. President Trump’s rejection of current peace proposals has also reduced hopes for a quick resolution. Crude and related energy markets have backed away from their strongest levels, but costs remain well above where they stood before the conflict escalated.

Soybeans are also drawing strength from demand for soy products, while corn keeps benefiting from steady small daily sales that point to a stronger demand base than many traders have priced in. In wheat, Chicago contracts are holding firmer, but Kansas City wheat remains under pressure.

Global weather risk models continue to shift, with conditions improving in several key producing regions while stress is building in others. Australia, India, Germany, and parts of Canada all saw risk levels ease this week. Forecast rainfall along Australia’s eastern and western coastal zones should support crop development, while southern Germany is expected to receive meaningful moisture. In Canada, warmer temperatures across the eastern Prairies are helping fields dry out enough for producers to accelerate planting progress.

At the same time, concern is growing across portions of Europe and Southeast Asia. Spain and western France are now under expanding heat domes, sharply increasing the potential for crop stress. Attention is also turning toward central Europe, including Hungary and the Czech Republic, where conditions are becoming less favorable and warrant closer monitoring.

China remains divided between wet and dry zones. The central portion of the country’s grain belt continues to trend dry, which should aid winter wheat harvest activity, while the southern quarter of the country is still receiving regular rainfall. Further north, traders are also watching Heilongjiang province, where localized areas could receive another 50 to 100 millimeters (2-4 inches) of rain over the next couple of weeks, potentially causing additional fieldwork delays.

Cattle Overview

Live and feeder cattle futures produced sharp gains yesterday, and achieved technical recovery targets, but relaxed from those levels into the close. The discount to cash was the most commonly discussed current topic yesterday at the rally, yet we saw the feeder index decline dramatically by $4.23 to $367.26 during yesterday’s rally. The August discount was still $13 but is considered normal compared to prior-year discounts.

Box beef values were sharply higher yesterday, with choice up $4.02 and select up $5.27, as this week’s kill is going to be small. Even with yesterday’s sharp rally, box beef values still remain under 400 on the choice. Post Memorial Day restocking is not considered robust. High fuel prices may be starting to weigh on consumer demand as prices are not retreating ahead of the busy summer driving season.

Yesterday’s high on August live cattle was the trendline that it touched from what it broke below last week, while August feeder cattle tagged the gap left on its chart from that same event without closing above it. Today’s opening marks the third day of the cattle rally after last week’s breakdown. In a market that has topped, strength will abate after today, with weakness reasserting itself. This is a key indicator of what to look forward to as we walk into June.

Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.