Again, new annual highs overnight for soybeans and soybean oil.
February 27, 2026
Soybean futures are again higher today, along with corn in tow. Soybean oil is again reaching new annual highs, as the Trump administration has released a plan that will require big oil refineries to make up for at least half of the biofuel blending volume obligations waived under the SRE program in recent years under the Renewable Fuel Standard, oil refineries have to blend billions of gallons of ethanol, and other biofuels into their fuel or else buy credits which are called RIN’s. The plan must be approved by the Wife House before being finalized.
South American crops are showing signs of stress in some areas, yet overall production is still expected to reach record levels. More attention is being paid to quality, especially in Brazil, where excessive rainfall in certain regions is raising concerns about soybean oil and protein content. Even so, these issues are already well understood by the trade and have yet to significantly influence price direction.
Domestic demand continues to offer solid support, particularly for soybeans, as crush margins move back toward levels seen last summer. That strength is helping keep interior basis levels stronger than a year ago in many areas. Corn basis is firming as well, with ethanol margins improving to near 20 cents, giving processors more incentive to stay active. Farmer selling has been elevated in February for corn, as they move grain to satisfy bankers for renewed operating loans, cash rent, income tax due February 28, and a plethora of other bills. With the bridge payments coming, farmer selling will likely slow in March. Export sales this morning were inside of trade expectations.
Crude oil prices are lower this morning, back near 64.00, as the third round of talks between the US and Iran got underway in Geneva, Switzerland. Pres. Trump wants signed agreements that Iran will not own a nuclear weapon, whereas Iran wants to continue to have the opportunities of enrichment for a supposed nuclear energy program. Pres. Trump has built up a large force in the Mediterranean Sea to hit heavily if Iran pushes back in any way in its ability to have a nuclear weapon in the future.
Forecasts of rainfall for areas of the dry southern plains into the first two weeks of March look promising, hampering the wheat recovery rally alongside corn and soybeans this morning. These needed rains need to arrive in the near-term forecasts as we get into early next week, or the recent price setback will find new legs.
Cattle futures closed in the middle of a large positive trading range yesterday, while, again, on Thursday, negotiated fed cattle markets have no bids. Cattle buyers note a softening tone in bidding amid tight feeder cattle supplies. Breakeven projections are well above cash price offerings in the kill market currently, and if we can’t top last October’s prices, especially with box beef well below October values, when will they ever have that chance again?
Cattle charts are struggling, while the cash kill market looks to be on vapors, as box beef prices have risen substantially over the past week, yet packers still have large losses every week on the books. Fears that a plant may go dark somewhere (possibly a strike by workers yet) or that operations may slow further may be among the many Black Swan events that could affect this market, which is not cheap on the cash side and not hedgeable for profits. The only game in town is trying to break even. That weight is reflected in heavy discounts both on live and feeder cattle.
April live cattle have proven support this week at 238.00-238.50, which at this point cannot be closed below, while April feeders have drawn a line in the sand that put yesterday’s high at the 20-day MA (366.00 is major resistance). For April feeder cattle, a close back under 361.00 would be followed by further technical selling. Both live and feeder cattle reflect the formation of a Head and Shoulders top, but the triggers “have not” been elected yet to confirm it.
Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221