🌽 Corn Pushes to New Contract Highs

• It has been a strong week for the grain trade, with corn continuing to lead the charge.

• Crop Tour findings suggest this wasn’t simply a regional production problem — weakness is showing up nationally.

• Minnesota and Iowa appear to be carrying much of the yield strength.

• Other states, including Illinois, are coming in well below last year’s production.

• Pro Farmer is expected to release its final estimates this afternoon.

• Corn yield expectations are roughly 177–180 bushels per acre, with yields down from last year across the regions.

• December corn: $5.07½, +4¢ — new contract highs

• September corn: $4.82½, +3¾¢, moving above recent resistance.

• September grain options expire today.

📈 Demand Remains Strong

• Corn’s ability to push through resistance is another indication that demand

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Grain Overview

Grain futures are seeing some pressure this morning as traders take profits following a strong week of gains. Corn and soybeans are also approaching overbought territory, which has slowed fresh buying heading into the weekend. Fundamentals remain supportive, and continued uncertainty surrounding crop size and global supplies is keeping some risk premium in the market.

September grain options expire today, which could create additional selling from in-the-money positions that traders don’t want converted into futures. September corn futures have a strategic number at $4.79 on the continuation charts. They tapped it yesterday and held near it but today will be another challenge.

Much of this week’s strength has come from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, where corn yield potential and soybean pod counts have generally fallen below last year’s results across the areas surveyed. Minnesota turned out to have the best yield potential, but its corn yield of 199 BPA was still off almost 2% from last year’s record, although it stands almost 9% above the five-year average. Soybean pod counts were record-large and up 1% from last year. They will release their official numbers at 1:30

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🌽 Corn Breaks to New Summer Highs

• Corn is pushing to new summer highs, breaking above the July high near $4.92.

• A close above that level would put the $5.00 mark squarely in focus.

• December corn: $4.94¾, +6¾¢

• September corn: $4.69¾, +6½¢

• Deferred contracts are already above $5:

  • March corn: $5.10

  • July corn: $5.20

• There is very little carry in the market, especially when factoring in interest costs.

🌽 Pro Farmer Tour Raises More Yield Concerns

• The Pro Farmer Crop Tour continues to find problems across both the Western and Eastern Corn Belt.

• Ohio and Indiana are showing trouble, with yields coming in below last year’s

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Grain Overview

You can tell by the morning grain trade that things did not go well for the Pro Farmer Tour going through Iowa and Illinois. Corn breaching 5.00 overnight, along with soybeans and wheat making new weekly highs, reveals that the yields are not stacking up. The only negative thing developing is that everybody is becoming aware this is not a regional problem anymore, but a complete Corn Belt yield issue where we could have another sub-180 BPA crop. Ironically, the 10-year national average has been around 176 BPA, and the talk is becoming that the yield could be near 178, still making it the third-largest corn yield ever grown. But on the S&D sheets, the carryout continues to decline toward concerning levels.

The tour found an Illinois corn yield around 15 BPA below last year’s 199.6 and also below the five-year average of 199.15. Soybean pod counts were off 3.3% from last year, but still about 3% above the five-year average. Meanwhile, the tour rolled through the western third of Iowa, finding a corn yield of 190.7 BPA, close to the five-year average but still below last year. Soybean pod counts were also near the five-year average but below last year’s record. The tour continues through eastern Iowa today and southern Minnesota as everyone heads toward Rochester, Minnesota. Pro Farmer will release its final yield estimate late Friday after the markets close.

Wheat futures pushed higher again this morning, with French milling wheat up around €4.00/MT as countries like Tunisia and Egypt begin moving away from Black

Sea-origin wheat after being notified by Russia of its inability to make transit. Their first stop for shopping will likely be European wheat of either German or French origin. As French milling wheat rises, remember wheat is fungible. Higher European values put upward pressure on US wheat to keep our exports from accelerating and maintain our current carryout of just over 700 Mil Bu. If a purchase is announced out of the US Gulf, it could create an explosive move in US wheat values.

The grain trade has seen an elevated price move this week, and as always, when markets push to new highs, you find not only willing profit-taking but actual cash movement that adds to the stalling effect. It’s been a long time since old-crop corn holders have been rewarded for hanging on late in the season and getting an opportunity to capture profitable cash values.

So be leery of an initial price stall for December corn just under 506.6 and November beans near 1256.4. These are both contract highs for the year. They will likely get bested, but the first attempts usually create a bit of wiggle.

Cattle Overview

Yesterday’s cattle trade put in a disappointing close after Monday and Tuesday tried to mount a recovery rally and put a better face on the trade, especially with the Fort Morgan, Colorado, plant reportedly coming back online the first week of September. Yesterday’s lower settlements had October cattle settling at their July 27 low-watermark price, while feeder cattle fell through their levels. The cattle trade remains on a bearish run as packers have now found the upper hand, despite boxed beef values that have improved. A weakening board is pushing for a lower cash cattle trade this week.

There was some light negotiated cattle trade reported yesterday, with Northern dressed sales at $355-$360, off $2-$13 from last week, while the Western Corn Belt did have some sales at $225, which is off $3-$5. Reports of $225 offers in the South were passed. Boxed beef had Choice up $3.84, but Select declined $2.12 in the afternoon trade. Packers are now making money with the cash cattle trade off $30 since May, while boxed beef is back near the better price levels of the year. Packers are even telling feedlots that prices will be lower next week, which is gutsy, but for now they have the leverage.

The feeder index yesterday morning was off $1.19 at $342.36. August feeders continue to chase it lower, with resolution day still 11 calendar days out. Feedlot buyers have now finally tightened up and are not talking about how there’s no cattle out there. At least not very loudly anymore. Friday’s COF report is seeing estimates that placements will come in at 93%, while feedlot inventory is expected at 102%, with heavy cattle again creating inventory numbers. A marketing rate of 93% is also expected.

By the numbers, if October cattle fail to hold the 215-216 range, which is significant, then 210 becomes the next target. October feeder cattle are in the same situation, with 320 important support that is now under attack. The 306 level had been a longer-term target but could come into play much sooner than expected. These numbers play against last fall’s low at 299.52.

Liquidation runs always do one thing very well, and that is go too far and overshoot on the board the price realities that develop later. Today’s close appears a long way off, but if cattle can sustain yesterday’s values after whatever chaos is thrown at the session, then we might finally be reaching levels that can create a base.

Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.

🌽 Corn Pushes to New Summer Highs

• Corn is making new highs for the summer, breaking above the July level near $4.92.

• The market looks like it could close above that level, putting the $5.00 mark in sight.

• Strength is being fueled by growing concerns that U.S. yield potential is slipping.

• National corn yield could potentially fall below 180 bushels per acre.

• A sub-180 yield, combined with stronger-than-expected demand, could significantly change the U.S. balance sheet.

🌾🌱 Wheat & Soybeans Show Double-Digit Strength

• Soybeans and wheat are both posting double-digit gains.

• Strength is broad-based across the grain complex rather than being isolated to

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Grain Overview

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour rolled into Indiana and Nebraska yesterday as it works toward the center of the Midwest. Again, corn yields and pod counts were disappointing. Both Nebraska and Indiana came in below last year. Corn yields in both states were around 10 BPA below last year, with pod counts in Indiana lower by 4% and Nebraska off almost 10%. The USDA went in the right direction on the August crop report, and September is statistically on track for another reduction, with corn yield potentially falling below 180 BPA. Meanwhile, the 53 BPA soybean yield is suspect and looks likely to decline further. Carryouts on corn and soybeans are on the decline.

As the tour moves into the heart of the Midwest in Iowa and Illinois today, nitrogen leaching is expected to have reduced the length and width of cobs. If the tour produces yields below last year again, then reality will start setting in for the perma-bears that August weather will not be able to save the crop and produce the hoped-for 184+ BPA corn and 53 BPA soybeans. StoneX, which typically guesses final yields, will be scrambling to reassess.

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Soybeans Stay Strong as China Keeps Buying

• Soybeans are holding onto gains after another strong move higher yesterday.

• China continues to make daily U.S. soybean purchases, with buying estimated near 1 million metric tons per week.

• At that pace, China could be on track to purchase around 25 million metric tons by year-end.

• August through December is historically a major window for Chinese soybean buying.

• President Xi is expected to visit the U.S. on September 24, adding attention to U.S.-China trade.

• There is also potential for Chinese corn purchases, especially with sorghum prices now competitive with or above corn on a protein basis.

• November soybeans: $12.19¾, +3¾¢

• January soybeans: $12.34½, +3½¢

• Soybeans continue to look technically supportive after holding the 100-day moving average through last week and the WASDE report.

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Grain Overview

Corn and soybean futures led the overnight session for upside price leadership, while wheat put in a mixed performance as it continues to stall at recent recovery highs. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour is finding disappointing yield potential as it rolls through South Dakota and Ohio, while Monday afternoon’s crop condition ratings showed a 1% drop in both the GD and EX categories.

Yield estimates for South Dakota were down 25 BPA compared to last year, while Ohio corn yield was off 5.5 bushels. Variability was noted, with some areas strong, but overall, the corn crop was found disappointing. Soybean potential in South Dakota showed pod counts averaging 946, which was down 20% from last year’s 1,188 pods. The soybean crop appeared to be further along in maturity already in early August with group 2 soybeans done blooming; potential still existed for the later-planted beans.

The Pro Farmer Tour now pushes further into the Midwest, where IL, IA, and IN will become the focus, and potentially improved yields will start to be reported. A flash drought has developed in Kansas, with Missouri hopeful for rain. The North Dakota corn crop is a bust, and it ranks eighth in corn production, behind Kansas in the 2025 rankings. These states are not on the tour. The trend of dry crops in the West continues, while saturated Central and Eastern Midwest forecasts persist.

Wheat prices had a small bounce overnight on reports of another vessel being struck in the Black Sea, while the war on grain and energy infrastructure continues. Adding to the difficulties, the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed, with the MOU now expired. Minimal traffic is exiting the SOH, with almost no return traffic. Fertilizer shortfalls from the Persian Gulf will have an effect on new 2027 crop production. Even J.P. Morgan notes that grain shortfalls will likely develop into next year. The days of plentiful grain supplies flowing from around the world are diminishing. The Black Sea is almost effectively closed, with the clock ticking on end-user wheat needs from this area, forcing them to procure supplies elsewhere.

Pres. Xi of China comes to the US on September 24, and there is a sense that they will continue to pursue US ag products, including corn, as sorghum is now priced above corn given the recent drought in the Western Plains. Row crop values remain supported on breaks, as not only does yield potential continue to decline, but increasing demand from Europe for corn will find its way to the US into the winter. A Chinese purchase of corn may also occur in the next 30 days.

A counter-seasonal grain price rally is in place, and these rallies tend to reach short-term highs after Labor Day. Not necessarily a crop-year high, but a cyclical high that tends to correct. The USDA will be forced to continue to lower not only world corn carryout numbers in future reports, but US corn carryout numbers as well, which look to go below 1.5 Bil Bu.

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Cattle Overview

Yesterday’s cattle trade enjoyed a sharp early morning rally that was put back in check, with small losses seen in the live cattle closing trade while feeder cattle drifted on the front side. A friendly start is anticipated this morning, as the union vote for the Fort Morgan beef plant in Greeley, Colorado, owned by Cargill, went 5-1 to accept the current contract and move to a full workload in early September. This helps alleviate some of the news from Friday’s Tyson plant closures.

The cash feeder index was off $4.07 at $344.43, which August feeder cattle were close to trading at in the morning before drifting. August feeder cattle have 13 calendar days to match up with the index, while August live cattle closed yesterday at 224.37, indicating a cash cattle trade that will continue to drift into the end of the month.

Boxed beef values saw Select jump sharply yesterday, playing catch-up after a decent week for Choice pricing. Select jumped $13.02 in the afternoon, while Choice gained $4.27. Procurement for the upcoming Labor Day weekend and school lunch program buying is in play and produces an upward seasonal for boxed beef that tops after Labor Day.

October live cattle have solid technical support in the 215-217 range, while resistance will be difficult initially at 223-224. September feeder cattle should continue to find legs at 328-330, while 340-341 remains an initial upside cap. Closing above that reignites optimism for September feeders to make a run to near 346. October feeder cattle will soon come onto the continuation charts, and 336-339 will be their resistance point of difficulty.

Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.

🌽 Grain Markets

• Corn and soybeans are sharply higher, an interesting move for this time of year and one that could point toward higher valuations into Labor Day.

• The Pro Farmer Crop Tour is underway, and early findings aren’t showing the robust crop many expected ahead of last week’s USDA report.

• Pushed maturity and heat stress are showing up across the Western Corn Belt, from North Dakota south through Kansas and Texas.

• Yield expectations are starting to shift toward 180 bushels per acre or potentially lower.

• Corn export inspections remain phenomenal, with booked corn actually leaving the country — leaving little room for cancellations.

• No soybean flash sales were reported this morning, but China remains an active buyer.

• NOPA reported a record soybean crush, although it came in slightly below expectations.

• The bigger story was soybean oil stocks falling to 1.36 billion pounds, nearly

  10% below June and the lowest since last October.

• Expanding renewable diesel usage following recent EPA announcements is helping tighten soybean oil supplies.

• November soybeans +24¼¢ at $12.16¾.

• France’s Farmers Union estimates its corn crop could fall to just 5–5.5 MMT, with more corn being chopped for silage to feed cattle.

• A smaller French and European crop could mean increased demand for U.S. corn exports.

• September corn +7½¢ at $4.66¼.

• December corn +8¢ at $4.91¼, near the high of the day.

🌾 Wheat

• Wheat is taking a pause after recent strength as traders shift money into the rallying corn and soybean markets.

• Spread unwinding is also weighing on wheat as traders buy corn and beans while selling wheat against those positions.

• Today’s quieter trade does not mean the Black Sea situation has been resolved.

• Russia’s Novorossiysk port remains offline, while Odessa continues to face heavy Russian drone attacks.

• September Kansas City +4¼¢ at $7.58½.

• September Chicago +¾¢ at $6.75¾.

• Minneapolis wheat is softer as harvest pressure, active farmer selling and reasonable early yields weigh on prices.

• September Minneapolis -3¢ at $6.75½.

• December Minneapolis -1¼¢ at $7.03.

🐄 Livestock

• Cattle futures opened sharply higher as traders looked for a recovery from last week’s washout.

• Friday’s stronger finish above some key technical levels helped inspire early buying.

• That rally was checked during the day session as new hedging pressure showed up.

• Box beef is sharply stronger, with Choice +$2.36 and Select +$9.78.

• Select struggled last week and appears to be making up some lost ground.

• August live cattle +77¢ at $224.40 as the contract waits to converge with the cash market later this week.

• October live cattle -20¢ at $218.67.

• December live cattle +5¢ at $218.42.

• The feeder cattle index slipped 47¢ to $344.43.

• Feeder cattle were also sharply higher this morning before the rally was checked.

• August feeders -$1.25 at $339.57.

• September feeders -$1.75 at $332.75.

• October feeders -40¢ at $325.02.

Grain Overview

The grain trade opened firmer last night, with wheat prices pushing closer to the July highs before turning to profit-taking after stalling out. Meanwhile, corn and soybeans also found strength on excessive rainfall across Illinois and Indiana, while the drought conditions impacting the Western US remain in place. Crop condition data this afternoon should be steady or lower, which will add credence to a reduced crop size out there.

Wheat prices are trading lower this morning, giving back a portion of Friday’s sharp Black Sea-driven rally. At this point, the weakness looks more like profit-taking than a meaningful change in the underlying geopolitical situation. Paris wheat futures are lower on the prospects of the best rain this year allowing for better winter wheat plantings. This is a weak reason for wheat trading lower, as it has nothing to do with near term tight supplies.

Most importantly, there has been no breakthrough in Black Sea ceasefire talks. Russia’s latest position remains its rejection of a limited Black Sea truce, while

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• Wheat futures are sharply higher as Black Sea grain movement becomes increasingly restricted.

• Ukrainian President Zelenskyy again proposed an opportunity for peace surrounding the Black Sea grain corridor, but continued attacks on Russian infrastructure have kept the market skeptical.

• Russia’s Novorossiysk deep-water port reportedly has all three loaders offline, while Ukrainian drone attacks have also targeted Russia’s Ust-Luga port.

• Current estimates suggest only around 20% of normal Black Sea wheat movement may be getting through as the region enters its important August export period.

• If disruptions continue another 2–3 weeks, major wheat buyers may be forced to turn toward European, Australian and U.S. supplies, potentially improving U.S. export demand.

🌾 Wheat

• September Kansas City: +30¢ at $7.50½ — had been up roughly 36¢

• September Chicago: +18½¢ at $6.71¼

• December Chicago: +18¢ at $6.86¼

• September Minneapolis: +12¼¢ at $6.81½

• December Minneapolis: +13¾¢ at $7.07½

• Minneapolis gains are being tempered by spring wheat harvest pressure.

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The overnight grain trade pushed higher, with wheat leading the way as it pursued new August price highs, throwing support to corn and soybeans. Russia is not showing interest in joining Ukraine in any talks that would protect Black Sea shipping, especially after Ukraine attacked and severely reduced operations at Russia’s largest deepwate…

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Market Overview

The day after a big USDA report is always a good gut check, and today we’re seeing some of yesterday’s excitement cool off.

Corn was the big winner following the report, but farmer selling and a larger Brazilian production estimate are pulling prices back today. Soybeans are holding near steady on continued Chinese demand, while wheat has been extremely volatile on another round of Russia-Ukraine headlines.

🌽 Corn: Farmers Sell the Rally

After yesterday’s sharp gains, corn is giving some of it back.

Brazil’s CONAB raised its corn production estimate by roughly 1.2 million metric tons, putting production at a record 143 million metric tons. That adds additional exportable supplies to the global market and gave traders another reason to take some money off the table.

Farmer selling has also picked up following yesterday’s rally, when prices finally

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The morning grain trade is mixed, with wheat showing light gains as French milling wheat pushes higher this morning while the damage from the Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s largest deepwater port is assessed. It’s been reported that one of the loaders is severely damaged, while other terminals are being repaired and are anticipated to be back in operation, but at reduced capacity. Insurance rates have skyrocketed on Black Sea-bound ships, keeping exports from the Azov Sea into the Black Sea and out through the Bosporus of Turkey at 35-50% of normal.

Row crop prices had quite the move to the upside yesterday after the USDA’s revelation of lower carryouts despite increased acreage. First off, there is still considerable chatter about the acreage, but for now we will leave it in place. It is the yield factor that is waking up the marketplace. Even though the Midwest enjoyed good growing conditions, the Plains, from North Dakota down to Texas, saw every state have its corn yields reduced substantially, by over 20% on average compared to last year. There is a strong likelihood we could see the September yield slip potentially further.

Grain terminals across the Midwest were gleefully advertising higher offers on corn prices yesterday, seeking movement and obviously not talking about the potential that corn valuations could increase in the coming months. Only that you have another opportunity to capture a new crop corn sale slightly above the 365-day average price that’s been offered over the past year. This obviously brings in a softer session today, especially with some profit-taking on corn ownership that was surprisingly acquired throughout yesterday’s session ahead of the report.

Yesterday’s crop report brought together a large supply of puzzle pieces, and it’s encouraging to see the USDA acknowledging that it has been behind on old crop demand for corn. What they missed in yesterday’s picture was that the European corn crop is down much more than they are reflecting on the world balance sheets. They lowered the European corn crop by less than 4 MMT, while estimates put the losses in the 10-15 MMT range. New crop corn is not going to see substantially lower demand than last year’s strong performance, since corn, for all intents and purposes, is still considered cheap, but will likely a substantial increase in sales into Europe. The USDA has us, as of yesterday’s data, at 300 Mil Bu too low on corn that can be sold, plus reflecting none to China, which could be a new surprise in the next 30 days before Pres. Xi of China comes to the US to meet with Pres. Trump.

I have spent years in this business and have been watching crop reports for almost 40 years. It never ceases to surprise me that the trade watches each report as if that is the final word, without accepting that there is a future of further trimmings that tighten up the balance sheets (meaning higher prices). Grain prices bottomed on June 30; the recent setback is a corrective price mechanism offering opportunities for end users before further price increases start to develop.

Cattle Overview

Yesterday’s cattle trade stumbled right out of the chute and was lower across the board, consistent with the technical nature of the trade stalling out at resistance on Tuesday, making itself vulnerable to selling in the Wednesday session. The feeder index showed a gain of $1.15 and is now at $355.37. August feeder cattle still declined and went to a strong discount again, reflecting back on the August 24 US border opening and Mexico staying on track.

Even though boxed beef prices had Choice showing a gain yesterday of $2.47 and Select up $0.40, live cattle futures softened when the USDA WASDE report showed beef imports being raised by 73 Mil pounds to 6.132 billion pounds. The USDA showed first-quarter 2027 beef production at 6.165 billion pounds, up 17 million pounds from the first quarter of 2026, and projected cattle prices at $245/CWT, which was a reduction of $5 from the last report.

October live cattle drifted to near short-term technical support at 222.00-222.75 (last week’s low and the 62% retracement measured to the July low). Breaching that opens up a drop to 219.00-220.00. September feeders closed under 340 and, without a quick rebound today, remain vulnerable to 333.50-334.00, the 78% retracement number of the July low, which is typically a substantial support number if it needs to be challenged.

Our technical observations on the charts are that the V-bottom created on July 27 is substantial and that we are seeing a volatile 3-wave recovery that should anchor at the lower prices reflected above and see another lift in prices.

Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221

Market Overview

Today was Crop Report Day, and despite USDA finding significantly more planted acres, the overall report landed firmly on the bullish/friendly side of the market.

The biggest surprise came from corn. USDA increased acreage, but a substantial cut to yield combined with stronger demand pushed projected new-crop carryout down to 1.653 billion bushels.

That was enough to send corn sharply higher, while soybeans and wheat also posted solid gains.

🌽 Corn: Yield Cut Changes the Picture

USDA increased corn acreage by roughly 1.4 million acres, but the acreage increase was overshadowed by a sizable reduction in expected yield.

USDA Corn Changes

• Yield cut from 183 to 180.7 bushels per acre

• Corn acreage increased roughly 1.4 million acres

• Old-crop demand increased by another 75 million bushels

• New-crop carryout dropped to 1.653 billion bushels

That carryout number is the key.

If USDA lowers yield again in September and pushes the national average below 180

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It’s crop report day, but wheat futures bolted higher overnight as Black Sea tensions picked up again, with Ukraine launching a major attack on Novorossiysk, Russia’s most important deepwater grain export hub. The attack reportedly included drones and Neptune missiles, forcing two major Russian grain terminals to temporarily halt operation…

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The overnight grain trade is lower despite seeing some mild strength early, as yesterday’s crop ratings kept corn at 61% GD/EX, while soybeans slipped 1% and are now at 62% GD/EX. With ratings well under last year, along with corn and wheat being under the five-year average, it still did not inspire much buying interest, as index funds are waiting for the release of the WASDE crop report on tommorow before extending more market length.

Weather conditions across the Midwest are forecast to improve, but at this time it is doubtful that bushels are being added (except for beans). Export demand remains active, and a weakening US dollar will be beneficial for additional sales. Corn export inspections were above estimates yesterday, proving the USDA will have to deal with its old crop carryout number, which is much lower than being advertised. Interesting how they pulled this off last year as well, but had the cover of a big corn crop to delay the revelation of it until September 30. It won’t be as easy this year.

Numerous details come into play on Wednesday, besides rectifying old crop demand and upcoming new crop demand prospects with the European corn crop being such a wreck. There is also a wide variance in yields from the beautiful-looking Central Midwest compared to the Western Corn Belt, where over the last decade North and South Dakota have picked up prominence in total bushels, along with Kansas. These three states, along with eastern Colorado and Nebraska, have taken a beating on yields compared to last year, when the country as a whole had minimal regional problems. If last year’s corn crop truly was just above 186 BPA, comparatively, it will be difficult for the USDA to push something higher than 182 BPA this year in the August report.

Finally, FSA data that will be incorporated is the wildcard. Opinions vary on whether corn acreage will be slightly higher or lower, with the general consensus being that bean acreage could increase by several hundred thousand acres.

Amongst all this, we still have two wars raging in the world that affect grain production and movement. Large supplies of fertilizer in the Persian Gulf have remained constrained since March. What has transited out of the SOH has not seen ships rushing back in for new supplies. Then we have the Black Sea region, which has seen the start of the wheat export season begin like a pinched garden hose, with current prospects of it being fixed minimal. Pres. Trump has sent an envoy to the region for talks, but this is the same group that has failed to solve the Iranian war crisis.

You may not want to talk about it, but the reality is energy prices remain elevated, fertilizer supplies are restricted, and large stocks of wheat and corn are finding themselves unable to move at a time when milling stocks are going to be needed. West African and Middle Eastern nations will need grain movement to occur within weeks, not months. Their stocks can only last so long before they hit critical levels.

Speaking of critical levels, the Strategic Oil Reserve is within 4-6 weeks of being unusable. This has been the relief valve for the lack of oil movement out of the SOH for the US and Europe, where we have been selling supplies. Seasonal bearish attitudes toward grain pricing are trying to remain in place, but how do you say it? Things are about to get spicy.

Cattle Overview

Yesterday’s cattle trade had live cattle generating strong gains as Choice boxed beef values climbed $7.06 to $371.42, while Select disappointingly drifted $1.53 lower to $350.84. Procurement for Labor Day has begun, and behind that will be stocking for school lunch programs, with schools getting underway over the next several weeks as summer vacation comes to an end.

Feeder cattle had the front two months trading softer, flipping the bull spreading we had seen for numerous sessions, as disappointment in the declining feeder index had August stalled just above 350, with the one-day index coming in near 351. Feeder sales reports note that high heat and extremely dry conditions are limiting demand for calves currently, especially unweaned calves.

Last week’s demand for cattle was explosive, with volume revealed to have jumped by 68,000 head to 104,000 head collected, which was the second-largest weekly volume since June 2023. With contract cattle now available to packers this week, they may back off a bit, with the cash trade possibly drifting lower, which the August live cattle contract, deliverable as of yesterday, is trying to reveal.

Spot September feeder cattle have wound into a rattlesnake coil over the last seven sessions and have defined resistance at 349.50-350.00, with support at 340.00-340.75. Everything inside that $10 bracket at the moment is a minefield.

Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221

Market Overview

Grain futures started Sunday night with plenty of strength, but much of that enthusiasm disappeared by the day session.

Kansas City wheat was up roughly 20 cents overnight, corn gained 3–4 cents and soybeans were around 8 cents higher. Once European markets opened, sellers stepped in and wheat quickly surrendered most of those gains.

The market is now balancing continued Black Sea uncertainty against hopes that renewed diplomatic efforts could eventually improve grain movement.

Meanwhile, attention is quickly shifting toward Wednesday’s NASS crop estimates and WASDE report, where yields, carryout and export demand will all be closely watched.

🌍 Black Sea Keeps Wheat Volatile

The Black Sea situation remains a major source of uncertainty.

Over the weekend, Ukraine launched drone attacks deep into Russia, escalating tensions even further. At the same time, diplomatic efforts are reportedly underway to try to get Russia and Ukraine talking.

That possibility was enough to take some of the fear premium out of wheat after its sharp overnight rally.

But the fundamental problem hasn’t disappeared: Black Sea grain movement

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Grain prices are firm this morning, with wheat futures leading the gains. Overnight strength had Kansas City wheat up as much as $0.20, and then, like clockwork, as the Euronext wheat contract opened on MATIF at 4:00 a.m. CDT, profit-taking developed and prices relaxed into the early US morning hours.

The Black Sea will be the focus this we…

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