The grain trade has seen the air come out over the past week, with markets giving back some of the inflation concerns as oil softened. Still, some consolidation ahead of the weekend would be understandable (especially since I expect Iran will do a “Zelinski” and blow the peace plan off the table, always wanting something more).

Positioning may be more active than usual today as traders get ready for next Tuesday’s May WASDE report. This update carries extra weight because it gives the market its first official look at new-crop balance sheets. Expectations are for soybean ending stocks to look similar to the current year, while corn and wheat production are expected to show more meaningful declines.

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• Grain markets started sharply lower overnight

• Then energy markets reversed HARD higher

• 📈 Crude oil:

  • Was near $90/barrel earlier

  • Rebounded to nearly $100 again

  • Currently up over $2/barrel

• Main reason:

  • Iran pushing back on parts of the proposed peace agreement

  • Specifically wanting control measures over ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz

• 🇺🇸 President Trump also added fuel to the market:

  • Said if a deal is not reached after his China trip next week, military operations could resume

• ⚠️ Result:

  • Energy markets exploded off the lows

  • Beans and corn rallied sharply from early losses

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A lower grain trade greets this market again today on a Thursday, as we've been seeing nothing but selling since the highs made for corn beans on Monday into early Tuesday. Of course, wheat peaked out on April 29 and we've been seeing this pervasive selling continue because of the oil market's air coming out with a assumed possible deal that could end that Iranian us crisis over their nuclear ambitions, and, of course, the Strait of Hormuz being blocked. And so, we've seen this selling it all that's been just nonstop selling in the grains. Well, this could probably come to an end today. We'll see. We're already noticing the crude oil market re challenging. Yesterday's low at $90 and already recovering into the noon hour back to almost the mid-90s, as it seems that we might see the Iranians do a Zelensky or Ukraine. And what does that mean? Meaning when they get so close to a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine that Zelensky would change his mind last minute and blow it up? Well, that could occur here with the Iranians as well, and maybe not until today or possibly tomorrow, but something could go wrong, and we're going to send the oil market back higher again, which the selling in the grain trade could reverse. We've been seeing further damage to the Kansas wheat crop, more freezing damage occurring overnight in eastern Colorado, western Kansas, which doesn't seem to mean anything anymore, as that which is Dead is dead, and that which is alive is still alive. And we don't need the wheat anyway. Is apparently how the market looks at this, as the values of us wheat are above the French milling wheat and world values. And so, we're seeing that deflate for now, that is until things go wrong with Iran again for more information, go to HeartlandInvest.com.

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May 7, 2026

Another lower grain trade again today, as crude oil lets the air back out of the marketplace. Even though oil prices have not violated yesterday’s lows yet, the grain markets will dutifully do that anytime. The best performer yesterday, Kansas City wheat, is the worst performer this morning, as the market always loves to even things out when pessimism is in control. Freeze-drying the Kansas wheat crop for the umpteenth time doesn’t seem to catch any concern anymore, as what is dead is dead and what is not is perceived to produce something is always too much.

A response from Iran is still awaited, and we may not get one till over the weekend. I have this nagging suspicion, since people usually never change, suspecting that the mullahs are going to do a “Zelinski” and hold out on the deal, still indicating a need for nuclear ambitions (obviously for civilian use only), something that the Pres. Trump will not agree to. We could have a bombing resume over the weekend (classic Trump style tactics when the markets are closed) and energy values moving violently higher early next week.

This liquidation phase in the grain market, since the opening-week highs, should run its course today or tomorrow, as the market will shift its focus back to Pres. Trump’s trip to China next week could renew thoughts that we could actually sell grain to China. China will obviously enter negotiations using its 10% tariff on soybeans and 15% tariff on other crops as leverage in talks with the US. Keep in mind that every time we go to bat with China on trade deals, we usually end up with them agreeing to buy US soybeans/grains. This current swoon in prices could be just another buying opportunity for end users.

A big hole is developing in the Brazilian winter safrinha corn crop. Southern Brazil is turning warm and dry, and these conditions are associated with developing El Niño. Many do not see it as a concern, but record yields are not attained this way, and many are already touting record yields for Brazil’s corn crop. Look for this to get dialed back in the months to come. Another concern is that farmers’ planning in Brazil for the next soybean crop could be affected, especially if this super El Niño develops. This is keeping the sell side of soybeans in check, that after three days of selling, we are just back to the top side of a seven-week trading range.

Export sales again were solid for corn this morning at over 1.3 MMTs, creating a situation where the USDA’s optimistic corn export number may need to grow another 100-200 million bushels. On paper, this pulls the new corn crop carryout back under 2.0 Bil Bu. Add to that the prospects of the corn acreage number being under 94 Mil acres, could all of a sudden have new crop corn taking on a whole new look of concern, especially if July weather is not optimum.

Cattle futures were higher again for the second day in a row yesterday, but the recovery was not as strong as the losses that occurred Friday/Monday. This questions the cattle market’s ability to keep rolling higher today, even though energy values are back at yesterday’s lows. Cattle lots are current, with average carcass weights at 948 pounds. That’s up 38 pounds from last year, even though slipping eight from last week.

Yesterday’s cash feeder index remains stagnant as it slipped $0.14 at $375.19. Meanwhile, the cattle auction yesterday saw some loads sold at $255, while Texas had light trade at $256. As expected, our imports are high, and exports are low, as revealed in the latest monthly figures. Imports were the third largest monthly figure at 599 Mil pounds in March, while exports at 586 million pounds for the whole first quarter came in at 82% of a year ago. This is the lowest on the record books going back to 2016. Look for cattle trading action to be more two-sided today.

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Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.

• Reports surfaced of a possible 14-point U.S.–Iran agreement plan

• Markets initially reacted as if tensions could ease:

  • Crude oil dropped as much as $13/barrel overnight

  • Stock market rallied

  • Gold and silver exploded higher

• Since then?

  • Markets have backed off extremes

  • Traders questioning whether Iran will actually follow through

• 📌 Main concern:

  • If negotiations fall apart, crude oil could quickly rally back above $100/barrel

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🌾 Wheat Holds Together Despite Early Selloff

• Kansas wheat was hammered overnight:

  • Down as much as 25¢

  • Recovered sharply during the session

• Current prices:

  • Kansas July wheat down 2¾¢ → 6.87¼

  • Chicago July wheat down 10½¢ → 6.17¼

• 🌧️ Rain forecasts disappointed again

  • Expected moisture for Kansas/Colorado mostly a bust

  • More freezing temps arriving tonight

• ❄️ Freeze damage remains a major concern

  • Already stressed wheat crop getting hit again

• 📈 Big spread story developing:

  • Kansas wheat gaining premium over Chicago wheat

  • Reason:

    • Plenty of soft red wheat available

    • Hard red winter wheat supply tightening

• Analysts now believe:

  • Kansas wheat could trade $1 over Chicago wheat

    Serious about ag markets? Go premium - just $5 a month.

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May 6, 2026

You have heard the news about a possible end to the Iranian/US war to end their nuclear ambitions, at around 2:30 a.m. CT, energies collapsed, after initially weakening earlier Tuesday evening as Pres. Trump put a pause to any military action in lieu of a hastily put-together 12-point plan. This had energy collapsing, dragging the grains with it (with a lack of buy orders beneath the grain trade in a thin night market session), while stock indexes and metals exploded in value. By mid-morning, these vicious trends shifted a bit, as Pres. Trump did state that we do not have a plan; we have an opportunity to bring things to an end.

Even though it is optimistic that this conflict could be coming to an end, the prospect of Iran doing a “Ukraine”, always changing its mind towards the end of a piece deal, could still be the threat that could keep the Strait of Hormuz from being freely open through May, is still a possibility. China has entered the conversation and is encouraging both sides to quickly advance a peace accord here and reach a potential deal.

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It’s Tuesday morning; the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, with 1,550 ships still trapped in the Gulf and only a few transiting out each day. Bear in mind, not one of those ships has any intention of coming back to get more fuel or fertilizer until hostilities are considered over. Meanwhile, grain futures slipped into selling mode on Tuesday after Monday evening’s price strength. Crude oil is relaxing, and back to 103 on the spot contract, off $3.35, as no major missile vaulting or bombing is taking place currently.

A feature yesterday that is not at the forefront of trading this morning is that southern Brazil is becoming warmer and drier. There is little precipitation forecasted for this area over the next two weeks and they will have elevated temperatures. This is the reproductive time for the large second corn crop that Brazil produces and exports. For now it’s not considered a major event within time it will limit selling interest as concerns will grow that the export pace out of Brazil may not be as robust in July as previously hoped and anticipated.

The rapid US planting pace, released yesterday afternoon, had a delayed effect on trade, but it is discussed this morning, as the areas behind average progress are few. The only real crop concern is that winter wheat conditions continue to decline. Even though yesterday afternoon’s wheat condition report showed the good/excellent category increasing by 1%, this is due to good wheat maintaining its appearance. Keep in mind, we have said the Eastern third of Kansas and Missouri has strong production capabilities, while the Western third of Kansas and Colorado is where the crop is falling apart. Note that in yesterday’s data, the poor/very poor category for Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, and Montana continues to increase as the crop deteriorates (with less middle-ground “good” condition wheat). This morning’s weakness in wheat is tied more to moisture heading for eastern Colorado in the form of snow that the market quickly pounces on and challenges weak longs.

As of this morning, the Chinese/US Summit is still on for May 14-15, with markets finding underlying support for soybeans and corn to be in the mix from China after their absence. It is hoped that China will remove its 10% tariffs on US soybeans, while the US grants access to computer chip technology. (Any buying that was to occur ahead of the summit would come from state purchasing firms that can buy without tariffs if given the green light.)

Yesterday, the cattle liquidation that started from Friday’s contract highs continued in earnest, with June live cattle having to go right to important support in the 249-250 breakout value on the continuation chart before closing well off session lows. Meanwhile, feeder cattle stumbled in the session and only produced a last-minute bounce that did not absorb the bulk of its losses, similar to live cattle. The cash feeder index yesterday showed a gain of $ 1.51 and is at $ 375.54, so here we go again with wide swings from above to below cash. Box beef values yesterday had choice climbing $2.54, with select higher by $3.55. Beef margins for packers are now at a loss of nearly $100/head, but the byproducts continued to climb, keeping Packers solvent. As usual, Tyson’s profits in poultry are what’s keeping them in the black.

On the charts, it’s not unusual for bull markets to correct for 2-3 days. By day 4, buying typically returns (yes, that’s today). If the setback on the charts is nothing more than a technical algorithm run, we should see feeder-cattle discounts to the cash index removed again, with live-cattle futures resuming the optimism of the uptrend the charts reflect. Anything otherwise implies something nefarious is afoot, and an unusual nonseasonal trend is developing in feeder cattle.

Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.

It was an interesting overnight trading session, as grains did open softer, but that did not last long. Corn and soybeans endeavored to climb back towards Friday’s highs, with soybeans exceeding them. Oil prices recovered in the evening to just post small losses, but in the early morning hours, a false story of the US naval ship being fired on with missiles and hit turned out to be fake news. Oil prices eased from an overnight high of 107.46 but still maintain a small gain for the session, as the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is not becoming as easy as Pres. Trump’s tweet on Sunday afternoon implied.

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Grain futures opened firm last night, and at one point we traded sharply higher again, with Kansas City over $7.00. This morning, at just after 7:00 AM central time, Iran announced it had delivered a message through its intermediary Pakistan to end the war. Details are unknown but the stock market bolted higher with crude oil off over $2.00 on the news. Grains softened as expected, but still captured a bid, and as the night session came to an end, they were all trading in the green.

Yesterday, the U.S. House sent legislation over to the Senate for a 2026 Farm Bill. There is a concern that Democrats in the Senate will push hard to limit any change to the SNAP program and are looking to be tough with pesticide usage. One thing the bill was missing was the nationwide use of E15 blending. This still remains voluntary.

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• Wheat rallied hard the past two weeks but hit resistance near 720 (KC July topped around 718.5)

• Deliveries added pressure:

  • ~2M bushels Chicago wheat

  • ~3M bushels Kansas City wheat

• Light rains in western Kansas/eastern Colorado (around 0.25”) helped sentiment slightly

• “Prime the pump” idea → small moisture could lead to bigger rains later

• End-of-month trading + profit taking triggered a correction

• Current moves:

  • Chicago July: ↓ ~17¢ to 635

  • Kansas City July: ↓ ~12¢ to 692

  • Minneapolis July: ↓ ~13¢

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Corn and soybean futures were supported early last evening, as crude oil raced over 110 in the night session. Pres. Trump indicated he is mulling military options against Iran, with some intense but short bombing campaigns to bring them to the table. No nuclear ambitions are being tolerated in a deal, yet that’s what they continue to try to hold out for. The strength in the oil also pushed corn higher again last night, challenging 480 and July beans to another new recovery high of 1206.2 before retreating. Also note that December corn printed 499.6 overnight before its retreat. This was a new contract high.

There are concerns about dryness developing in the heart of Brazil’s safrinha corn region, as rain is needed now that the crop enters a drier, warmer period. It is this second corn crop that Brazil exports. They are in a very important reproductive stage right now, and over the next several weeks, the corn crop could be reduced by 10-15 MMTs.

Wheat futures stumbled last night, as they were 578 contracts of KC wheat delivered, which was put out by Bungee, and 400 contracts of Chicago wheat delivered by the Andersons, creating a retreat in the wheat rally. 400 contracts of soybean oil were also tendered but experienced a big stopper. Kansas remains mostly dry, and again, that 11-15 day modeling suggests rain shower activity. For now, the Northern and Central plains look to be dry for the next 10 days.

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The grain trade spilled into corrective mode on the last trading day of the month, with deliveries typically being the trigger. Crude oil remains an underlying supportive tone, along with the slow traffic ever leaving the Persian Gulf with fertilizer. Adding to that, there are no ships inclined to return to the Persian Gulf to get more fertilizer to keep the flow moving. There is no question that this will affect wheat production in Australia, Brazil, and India. Wheat values will face challenges to their uptrend, but in the longer term, the prospects remain for still higher values.

Cattle futures gapped higher yesterday on the surprise firm cash action that took place Tuesday afternoon. When the dust settled, deferred contracts gave those gains up and closed moderately softer, while the April live and feeder cattle contracts that are expiring remained strong. April cattle expire today and went out yesterday at 256.87. Most the cash cattle trade that occurred this week was in the 255-257 range. The cash feeder index picked up another $0.18 yesterday at $369.80 while the April feeder futures contract settled at $372.27. This will settle out by Monday, May 4.

Live cattle have rallied $15 in five days, while August feeders leaped over $16.00 higher in the same amount of time. A multi-day correction in here would not be a surprise, given today’s last trading day of the month and tomorrow, even though it’s the end of the week, is the first trading day of the month. Breakout targets for June cattle in this upcoming improved demand season are 260-262, with August feeders targeting continuation highs near 383.

Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.

Grain markets firmed overnight, with corn, soybeans, and wheat all finding support as managed money continues to rebuild length. The buying is being tied to a broader risk premium that now includes both weather concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. Dryness continues to engulf the heart of the HRW wheat belt, with GFS and Euro models both giving up on trying to bring long-term rain forecasts into nearby prospects.

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The wheat trade is sharply higher this morning, pulling corn with it, but that’s not how the evening started. The USDA put out a ridiculous crop condition report yesterday, showing the total HRW wheat rating steady with the prior week and only lowering Kansas conditions from good to excellent by 1%. It did collapse Colorado and Nebraska, but left Kansas down just 1%, putting their ratings in question again compared to live observations.

What got the wheat market to rip higher at night was the GFS at midnight giving up its dream of rain for this coming weekend and continuing the ongoing story of seeing crop-saving rains in the 11-15 day forecast, but can never get them into the 6-day. For this reason, the HRW wheat market pressed to new highs overnight with the September contract trading over $7.00. With KC wheat well over $2.00 above corn, as it rises now, it pulls corn with wheat, less wheat in the feed bunk. (Granted, some of it’s getting grazed in southern Kansas, where there is active heading on a crop that is not bad looking in that area.)

The world is also waking up to the reality that wheat production is not something to count on, as Australia and China are entering the mix. Add to the reality that all new-crop wheat going into the ground soon in Brazil and other parts of Australia is either unavailable or priced uneconomically. How will this play out in the end production numbers months from now?

Yesterday’s corn and soybean planting data would be considered bearish for trading, with corn at 25% planted and soybeans at 23%. These are above last year and well above the five-year average. Outside markets continue to offer support, thwarting the bears’ constant drumbeat that these grain prices do not deserve to rally. The charts have been pointing up for wheat, corn and soybeans, and the Midwest drought is now manifesting these rallies. We have some hedge sales reports from the overnight in an upcoming text.

Oil prices are pushing higher in the night session, with spot back over 100. The rally stalled at that point (around 7:00 a.m. CT), as the UAE announced it was leaving OPEC and would set its own oil production decisions. Which, at this time, means going into full production and exporting.

Live and feeder cattle futures closed sharply higher yesterday, but will likely have to contend with outside markets this morning, which could prompt a softer start. The question is whether the softer start is maintained, but the market has quickly shrugged off fears of persistently high fuel prices. Yesterday’s cash feeder index barely moved, when it was just up two cents at $369.35. April feeders expire this Thursday and are at $370.57 yesterday’s close.

Box beef prices got underway higher again this week, the choice gaining $2.56 and is at $389.56, with select just $0.96 below that at $388.60, posting again yesterday of $2.53. Volatility remains extreme in the cattle trade, with June right back up into the resistance point of 249.50-252. Meanwhile, August feeders have renewed resistance at 372-373, then ultimately at 383, last fall’s continuation contract high.

Last week’s lows are significant to the cattle trade’s upward momentum, with seasonals on feeders is typically higher in May. The question is now: will corn manifest a second-quarter rally that typically peaks in May and could affect the feeder board? We have maintained the posture that we are in an aging bull market, and that rallies to resistance points on the charts which we have revealed are just good areas to lay in LRP’s and option strategies.

Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.

• Big rally across the soybean complex

  • July beans up 15¢ → 11.93½

  • New crop (Nov) up 11¢ → 11.67

• Main driver = Soybean Meal Surge

  • May meal up $9.70/ton → $334

  • July meal up $9.20/ton → $328.30

• Why the spike?

  • Netherlands rejected Argentine soybean meal cargoes

  • Issue: HB4 gene contamination concerns

  • Cargoes rerouted to Southeast Asia at a discount

  • 👉 Global demand shifting quickly to the U.S.

• Soybean oil also supportive

  • Up 30 points with stronger crude oil

    Serious about ag markets? Go premium - just $5 a month and receive Heartland Market Talk Monday - Friday.

🌽 Corn Quietly Climbing

• Riding support from strong soybean meal

• July corn up 5½¢ → 4.69 (nearly hit 4.70)

• December corn up 4¼¢ → 4.88½

• 📈 “Slow and steady” rally still in play into May

🌾 Wheat: Short Covering + Weather Concerns

• Chicago wheat leading gains

  • July up 12¼¢ → 6.29

  • Funds covering large short positions

• Kansas wheat also higher

  • Up 6¢ → 6.75¾

  • Still supported by:

    • Ongoing dryness in western Kansas

    • Freeze damage starting to show

• 🌧️ Weekend rains = minimal relief

• 📉 Crop ratings expected to drop:

  • Trade guessing -2 to -3%

  • Could be worse (closer to -4%)

• ⚠️ Reminder:

  • May contracts go deliverable Friday

  • Be out by Thursday

🌱 Spring Wheat

• Slightly higher, less action

  • July up 2¢ → 6.95¼

🐄 Cattle: Strong Reversal + Seasonal Support

• Market bouncing back after last week’s selloff

• Cash market remains strong

• April cattle up $2.42 → 250.72

• June cattle up $3.97 → 249.20

• 🔥 Key drivers:

  • Funds stepping back in (buying again)

  • Strong beef demand heading into May–June (prime season)

  • Lower overall cattle numbers = support

• 🥩 Beef prices:

  • Choice +1.42

  • Select +1.67 (closing the gap)

🐖 Hogs

• Modest bounce

  • June up 62¢ → 102.52

  • July up 37¢ → 105.27

🛢️ Energy Markets Driving Support

• Crude oil up $2.23 → $96.63

• Ongoing tension around Strait of Hormuz

• Diesel up 14¢/gallon → strong move

• ⛽ Higher energy = supportive for:

  • Soybean oil

  • Biofuels

  • Overall ag complex

🪙 Metals Pull Back

• Gold down $45

• Silver down $1.30

💡 Big Picture Takeaways

• Soybean meal disruption = major bullish catalyst

• Demand shifting to U.S. = immediate market impact

• Wheat supported by weather + short covering

• Corn continues a quiet but steady climb

• Cattle regaining strength with seasonal demand + tight supply

Thank you for listening and have a profitable day!

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April 27, 2026

Grain markets pushed higher overnight with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed seeing corn, soybeans, and wheat all attracting fresh buying. Weather remains the main driver, as stress is building across several important growing regions.

The wheat market is no longer focused only on the U.S. HRW crop. Concerns are now spreading to Australia and Russia as well. China is also drawing attention, with ongoing heavy rains raising questions about grain output after similar conditions hurt last year’s corn crop during harvest.

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• Kansas City wheat (leader this week) hit major highs not seen since 2022

  • Broke through previous resistance in a big way earlier this week

• Now seeing profit-taking + pullback

• Market battling two forces:

  • Reality:

    • Northern Kansas wheat severely damaged (freeze + drought)

    • Crop already headed → yield mostly set

  • Perception (algos/headlines):

    • Rain in forecast = automatic selling pressure

• Key takeaway:

  • Rain may help some areas (Eastern Colorado)

  • Too late for Northern Kansas

Wheat Prices Snapshot

• Kansas City (July): ⬇️ 10¢ to $6.69¼

• Chicago (July): ⬇️ 4¢ to $6.61¼

• Minneapolis:

  • May: ⬇️ 0.75¢ (holding firm)

  • July: ⬇️ 1¢ to $6.90½

• New Crop:

  • Sept: ⬆️ 0.25¢ to $7.06½

  • Dec: ⬆️ 0.25¢ to $7.19

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April 24, 2026

This morning’s market has Kansas City relaxing from yesterday’s breakout price of a congestive range, bolting through 660 by $0.26 before retreating overnight, as rains continue to propagate the weather models for the dry areas of the HRW wheat belt after May 1. This coming Monday’s HRW wheat crop ratings (which reports are filled out this afternoon) will show another sharp drop in ratings, especially for Kansas, as the freeze damage will have revealed itself due to the heat that occurred directly afterward. Production has been lost, and upcoming rains will only stabilize prospects in northern Kansas, while prospects in eastern Colorado can improve. If these rains scheduled for May 1 and afterward do not materialize in the Sunday night forecasts, a more extended move to the upside at $ 7.00 on Kansas City wheat and higher will be renewed.

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• Kansas wheat conditions worsening fast

  • Northern Kansas wheat only 8–12 inches tall

  • Crop already heading/flowering too early due to stress

• Rain is coming… but too late to matter

  • Forecasted for early May, but crop is already set

• Result: Sharp decline in Kansas wheat production expected

• Market reaction:

  • New contract highs & calendar year highs

  • Prices at highest levels in over a year

  • احتمال (outlook) of Kansas wheat reaching $7

Wheat Prices Snapshot

• Kansas City (July): ⬆️ 25.5¢ to $6.75½

• Chicago (July): ⬆️ 11.25¢ to $6.18¼

• Minneapolis:

  • May: ⬆️ 8.5¢ to $6.73¾

  • July: ⬆️ 9.5¢ to $6.90½

• New Crop:

  • Sept: ⬆️ 8¢ to $7.05¼

  • Dec: ⬆️ 7.25¢ to $7.16¾

Corn

• Getting pulled higher by wheat strength

• Wide wheat/corn spread (over $2)

• July: ⬆️ 2¢ to $4.64¾

• December: ⬆️ 2.5¢ to $4.84¾

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