June 23, 2026

Grain Overview

Grain futures found support overnight, with corn, soybeans, and wheat all posting gains as traders covered short positions. Wheat futures again followed a familiar seasonal pattern, fading from their overnight highs as the session progressed. Recent selling pressure appears excessive in corn and wheat, leaving futures technically oversold and increasingly competitive in the world market.

Weekly crop condition ratings offered few surprises for corn and soybeans, with both holding steady from the prior week. While unchanged ratings were largely expected, they also suggest recent weather has not been as beneficial as many anticipated. Both crops continue to trail last year’s condition scores. Spring wheat was the biggest disappointment in the report, slipping 2 percentage points, while analysts had expected a modest improvement.

The most notable figure from the USDA update was winter wheat harvest progress reaching 40%, well ahead of last year’s 18% pace despite periodic rainfall delays. The rapid harvest pace continues to reinforce concerns regarding yield potential and overall crop quality. This should allow for earlier harvest price low.

Aside from crop developments, market attention remains focused on negotiations between the United States and Iran. Traders continue to monitor vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping activity gradually increasing. The key question now is whether commercial shippers will regain enough confidence to fully resume normal operations. While easing geopolitical concerns have pressured energy futures, physical energy markets remain relatively firm.

Europe continues to get overwhelmed with extreme heat and dryness as the French, German, and Polish grain crops struggle for another 10 days, when possible moderating temperatures and some spotty showers could return. The corn crop has started pollination and yield losses under this heat and dryness could be over 10%. Meanwhile, a large portion of the European wheat crop is also flowering and moving to the heading stage, which will also affect their yields. The world is about to learn what it’s like to have crop sizes diminish every quarter rather than increase world stocks. Australia’s next super El Niño is anticipated to potentially reduce production by 10 MMTs.

Attention is also beginning to shift toward several important market events ahead. July options expire this Friday, while first notice day for July futures arrives next Tuesday. The end of the month and quarter also coincide with next week’s USDA quarterly stocks and acreage reports, setting the stage for increased volatility and position adjustments across the grain complex.

Cattle Overview

Live and feeder cattle futures were higher on Monday after Friday’s COF report, but August live cattle failed to close over the persistent highs near 250. Meanwhile, feeder cattle managed to close above 370 and settled pretty much with the cash feeder index. The feeder index yesterday showed a jump from $3.50 to 370.56, with Friday and Monday’s gains.

The reported 5-Area average cash trade last week was put at $259.63. June live cattle, with seven calendar days to go, is still almost $4.00 behind. The board has consistently had to be pulled higher into the settlements over the last few months. Speculators and index funds don’t want to be the ones buying the high-priced pen of cattle; they leave that to the cattle buyers to carry the risk.

Today’s chart points again have August live cattle staring at 250, and strengthening the June cattle will likely help August pick up the courage to push through and close above 250.50. This would then extend technical buying interest. Support is 242-243. August feeder cattle have initial resistance on the charts at 375-376, with yesterday’s push just above 373 noted before a correction occurred. Major support underneath the feeder cattle market comes in at 363-364.

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Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk

Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.

• Grain markets were mixed, with strength in soybean oil and new-crop soybeans offset by weakness in wheat and corn.

• European wheat crops continue facing significant heat stress, especially in France and Germany.

• Excessive rainfall across parts of the Midwest is creating concerns about nutrient loss and crop condition deterioration.

• Cattle futures finished higher despite giving back a large portion of early gains.

• Crude oil remained under pressure as energy markets continue to digest Middle East developments.

  Serious about ag markets? Go premium - just $5 a month.

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Grain Overview

Grain futures did open higher last night, with crude oil pushing $78.00 amid vitriol between the US and Iran over reports that the MOU was falling apart. Overnight headlines shifted that, by morning, we have crude oil off $1.31, trading at 74.54, as the Iranians stayed at the table despite their threat to leave and agreed to nuclear inspections.

Soybeans remained firm overnight, as US soybeans are priced in line with South American beans, while wheat values softened amid heavy hedge pressure. French milling wheat is sharply higher by $4.25 a ton (equivalent to a 12-$0.14/bushel gain) as heat and dryness overcome the EU.

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At one point this week:

• Wheat rallied roughly 40 cents from Sunday night’s lows.

• Corn recovered nearly 15 cents from its weekly lows.

• Soybeans were more than 20 cents higher at one point before trimming gains.

While Friday’s session erased part of those advances, the important takeaway is that the relentless selling pressure finally stopped. The “falling knife” that dominated the grain markets through May appears to have found a floor.

🌾 Wheat Market Supported by Global Production Concerns

The wheat market continues to find support from growing production issues around the world.

Soft Red Winter Wheat Concerns

Heavy rains continue across:

• Missouri

• Indiana

• Ohio

creating favorable conditions for scab development and raising concerns about yield and quality losses.

European Weather Problems

Heat is becoming a major concern across Europe:

• France is expected to see temperatures in the 90s and low 100s.

• Germany and Poland remain in critical flowering stages.

• Ukraine remains dry, although temperatures have been moderate enough to prevent major stress so far.

Super El Niño Adds Longer-Term Risk

Weather agencies around the world, including:

• Japan

• Australia

• NOAA

have now confirmed a developing Super El Niño.

Historically, Super El Niño events have often reduced Australian wheat production, particularly during August and September. While nothing is guaranteed, historical precedent suggests lower production risks are increasing.

The result is a global wheat supply outlook that is becoming progressively tighter.

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Grain Overview

After yesterday’s strong performance, corrective action is taking place ahead of a three-day weekend. Markets will close at the regular time today and resume Sunday night at 7:0 p.m. CT. Export sales this morning again showed consistent sales of over 1 MMT for corn, even though we should be tapering off seasonally. The USDA will have to reconcile its export numbers, which need to climb another 100-150 million bu, while ethanol grind could be reduced by 25 million bu, and crop stocks numbers for September 1.

The MOU was signed by Iran and the US overnight, allowing the flow of goods and oil to resume through the Strait of Hormuz without tolls. This is not a peace agreement that ends the conflict; rather, as the title states, it is a memorandum of understanding outlining what will take place, while further negotiations will determine that Iran will never have a nuclear bomb, that nuclear material will be recovered, and that Gulf states will reinvest in Iran.

Basis values have firmed across the Midwest, as US farmers have not been joining the selling that index funds created late last week. The improving basis, along with the recent price bounce into yesterday, did stimulate some movement. The next building story for the grain trade beyond the SRW wheat crop, which is likely struggling with disease, is the super El Niño, which is confirmed by numerous national weather sources. What is consistent in the study of El Niño since 1950 is that Australian wheat production will be off for their crop year; the question is to what extent. With high input costs affecting Australia and their plantings over the last 45 days, entering their finishing mode in July, it’s likely acreage will also be down due to the fear of putting such large input costs into a crop that may struggle with some form of drought.

Over the coming weekend and into early July, the French crops are under extreme heat that will be in the 90s to the lower 100s. No rain is in the forecast through July 1. This drought is spreading across Europe and into Germany and Poland and is now thought to be moving into Ukraine. This will increase the export prospects for row crops into Europe and improve potential wheat exports, with European and Australian supplies potentially reduced. The lows made in HRW wheat over a week ago and SRW wheat on Sunday night could possibly be setting up to be the harvest lows. Price retreats will find end-user interest and likely short covering from index funds to continue.

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Cattle Overview

Cattle trading was corrective on Wednesday, as we head into the monthly COF report due out this afternoon at 2:00 p.m. CT. Estimates are for Marketing at 89%, placements at 95%, and the June 1 at Feedlot Inventory at 100%. Slow marketing rates are from the building carcass rates, which are responsible for the large inventory number.

Yesterday’s feeder index moved a nominal to cents higher at $3 and 64.03, with the feeder cattle trade now finding futures premium again. Cash trade this week is expected to be fully steady as last week had seen light purchase volumes and Packers could be a bit short bought. The May 1 high puts August live cattle resistance at 251.50-252. Support is at 242-243, the 40-day MA. August feeder cattle are targeting 370 for resistance, while nearby support has now been built up at 360-361.

Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk

Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.

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📈 Grains Rally for a Third Consecutive Session

• Grain markets posted another strong day, led by wheat.

• Main drivers:

  • Weather concerns in Europe

  • Short covering by funds

  • Continued rumors of Chinese grain demand

• 📌 Wheat was the clear leader, with major contracts rallying 15–18 cents on the day.

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Grain Overview

The grain trade firmed substantially overnight, fueled by continued rumors that China may soon purchase new-crop US beans and by potentially lower tariffs that will encourage purchases of corn and wheat. Also, France is experiencing a severe heat wave that is expected to reduce crop yields, with temperatures in the 90s to lower 100s and continuing into the weekend. This heat is also affecting Germany and Italy, affecting their crops as well. The wheat and summer row crops are at risk, and Europe has become a consistent buyer of US grains this past spring.

The freefall in prices since the May 15 China Summit and the unwinding of the energy support connection hit bottom early last week, and the prior 10 days were just a grind out of firm base valuations for grains until we get to the June 30 Stocks and Seedings data. November soybeans have proven that 1125-1135 was substantial support. July corn had valuations at last year’s lows, just under 410, with December corn finding the same two-year support under 440. Kansas wheat put a basing value at the 100-day MA in the 615-625 range, while Chicago wheat found its support just under 580. A recovery demand-led rally is now in play, as supply thoughts from recent rains have pushed its limits for now.

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🌱 Soybeans Lead the Market Higher

• Soybeans were the star of the day despite crude oil falling nearly $5/barrel

• Early session:

  • July beans rallied sharply

  • November beans were up as much as 22¢

• Main drivers:

  • Strong crush margins

  • Rising Brazilian FOB premiums

  • Rumors of potential Chinese interest in U.S. soybeans

• 📌 Crush margins:

  • Running around $4.70+ per bushel

  • Keeping demand for soybeans strong

• 📌 Brazil factor:

  • Brazilian FOB premiums have increased roughly 50¢/bushel over the past month

  • U.S. soybeans are becoming more competitive for late summer export demand

🇨🇳 China Rumors Add Support

• Market chatter suggested China may be exploring U.S. soybean purchases

• Whether true or not:

  • The rumors sparked aggressive buying early in the session

• Traders are watching closely for:

  • Any confirmation of Chinese buying

  • Additional export announcements

🌱 Soybean Prices

• July soybeans:

  • Up 7¼¢ → 11.26½

• November soybeans:

  • Up 10¼¢ → 11.45

• 📌 Even after fading from highs:

  • November beans still posted the strongest gains of the grain complex

    Serious about ag markets? Go premium - just $5 a month.

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Grain Overview

The grain trade is mixed this morning, as weakness overnight was tied to crude oil slipping below Monday’s levels, with grains also absorbing soybean and corn ratings that had showed a 1% improvement while spring wheat was up 3%. Chicago wheat (SRW) caught a bid in the early morning hours, as concern is starting to grow again on scab disease that is likely developing over a large portion of the production area with excessively wet conditions and cool temperatures that promote the disease.

Also, attention is developing over the European wheat crop that is dropping into a deep drought (French milling wheat is showing a gain this morning of $2.50 and MT at 202.25.). This is also including portions of Ukraine. Hot and dry weather conditions have anchoring in, especially over southern France for temperatures of be in the hundreds while 90s will remain throughout the country. This weather pattern looks to be locking in and can also affect their summer corn and oil seed production. Europe has been importing corn and beans from the US, and this will just look to increase that demand later this fall.

The Australian Weather Bureau has also acknowledged the super El Niño and it’s being anticipated that it could be affecting farmers seeding plans that is still going on, with expensive and hard to acquire fertilizer being an issue to applied during an anticipated drought year.

Market players are now looking ahead to Friday’s formal signing of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, although much of the initial market reaction has already come and gone. Risk assets wasted little time embracing the news, with equities racing to fresh record highs while Brent crude retreated toward the $80 per barrel area as fears of a prolonged supply disruption eased.

While key details remain subject to negotiation, current discussions suggest Iran could receive access to a significant portion of its frozen assets (if it adheres to certain expectations), along with funding aimed at rebuilding infrastructure damaged during the conflict. The removal of US naval restrictions would represent another major shift, although questions remain regarding future transit fees and how aggressively Iran may seek to monetize strategic shipping routes without disrupting global commerce.

The long term political and economic consequences of the agreement will likely be debated for years. For now, however, investors appear focused on the prospect that one of the market’s largest geopolitical risks may finally be moving into the rearview mirror.

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Cattle Overview

Live and feeder cattle futures pushed higher yesterday with August feeders closing above important 360 mark. This occurred even with the feeder index tumbling $5.34 to be at $362.67. This Friday is a CME holiday, so cash trade is anticipated to take place earlier in the week, which right now is anticipated that steady money. Last week’s cash trade was mostly at $256, putting the June contract and a big discount with 14 days to expiration. Thursday after the close is the monthly COF report.

On the charts, August cattle are pressing their three-week resistance near 243.75-244, with upside will flag resistance at 247.00. Last week’s support at 234-234.50 looks intact to build gains off of. The August feeder cattle close above 360 is constructive with an attempt at 366 the next target. Major support is at 249-250.

Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.

• Crude oil tumbled overnight after reports of a potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran.

• Current plan:

  • Formal signing expected Friday

  • Includes a 60-day cooling-off period

  • Strait of Hormuz would reopen

  • More oil and fertilizer shipments could resume

• Key question:

  • Can both sides avoid blowing up the deal before Friday?

• 📌 Important note:

  • This is not a permanent peace agreement

  • It is simply an agreement to continue negotiations

🌽 Corn Holds Important Technical Support

• Grain markets initially followed crude oil lower overnight

• However, corn recovered nicely during the day

• July corn:

  • Up 2½¢ → 4.15¼

• December corn:

  • Up 1¼¢ → 4.41½

• 📌 Key support levels:

  • July corn: 4.10

  • December corn: 4.40

• Markets briefly broke below those levels but recovered

🌱 Soybeans Bounce Off Morning Lows

• Soybeans were sharply lower overnight but staged a strong recovery

• July soybeans:

  • Up 3¼¢ → 11.16¾

• November soybeans:

  • Up 1¢ → 11.33

• Recovery from lows:

  • July beans bounced nearly 15¢

  • November beans recovered roughly 12¢

• 📌 Market focus now shifts toward:

  • June 30 acreage report

  • Summer weather

  • Potential Chinese buying

    Serious about ag markets? Go premium - just $5 a month.

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Grain Overview

Just ahead of market openings last night, it was announced that Iran and the US came to MOU agreement that for some reason, (which can allow for revisions and arguments this week) will still not get signed until Friday. This caused a sharply lower opening for crude oil while equities and metals moved sharply higher. The obvious reaction by the grain trade was to again move into a softer trade mode. There’s plenty of rain throughout the Central US, but there are rising concerns that western and central Europe are entering into a drought.

If the MOU agreement holds together into Friday, the signing will occur in Switzerland, with the anticipation that the Strait of Hormuz will flow freely. Unfortunately, industry sources say it still will be several months until movement will be back to pre-war levels. Considerable repairs will also be needed at numerous golf facilities. In this agreement, it’s fear that Israel may still throw a monkey-wrench into it,

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Grain Overview

Grain futures came under light pressure overnight as improving geopolitical sentiment combined with beneficial rainfall across portions of the Corn Belt. Energy markets led the weakness, with crude oil falling by more than $3.50 per barrel after President Trump said a formal agreement with Iran could be finalized as early as this weekend. According to Trump, such an agreement would pave the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Traders remain skeptical, however, as similar announcements have surfaced before only to unravel later. There is also considerable disagreement regarding control of the waterway, with the United States asserting it will oversee shipping access while Iran continues to reject that position. Even if the Strait reopens, market participants recognize that global energy logistics will not return to normal overnight. A key unknown is how quickly shipping companies will be willing to resume operations in the region and consider transit back in after weeks of heightened tensions.

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🌾 June WASDE Report Surprises Wheat Bulls

• USDA released its June WASDE report today

• Biggest takeaway:

  • Wheat numbers were more supportive than expected

• Hard Red Winter Wheat production:

  • Cut another 18 million bushels

• Wheat carryout:

  • Reduced by the same amount

• Wheat stocks estimate:

  • Trade expected 760 million bushels

  • USDA came in at 744 million bushels

• 📌 Initial reaction:

  • Kansas City wheat rallied double digits

  • Chicago wheat also posted strong early gains

🌽 Corn & Soybeans Unable to Hold Support

• Corn and soybean numbers were largely in line with expectations

• No major bullish surprises for row crops

• Traders quickly returned to a:

  • “Sell the rally” mentality

• Seasonal selling pressure resurfaced throughout the day

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June 11, 2026

Grain Overview

The overnight grain trade ended mixed ahead of today’s June WASDE crop report out at 11:00 a.m. CDST. The report is typically a non-event, but today, fresh news could prompt price action. Demand is the factor in the June report, and with this morning’s export sales showing corn at a solid 1 MMT and new crop near 1 MMT, the pressure is on for them to acknowledge they have to start bumping up the old-crop export numbers by at least 100 million bushels. We are at 98% sold on a crop year that doesn’t end until September 1.

Old-crop carryout numbers expected for corn are 2.14 billion bu; new-crop at 1.95 billion bu. Soybeans have old-crop at 340 Mil Bu and new-crop at 310 Mil Bu. The old-crop wheat carryout is 942 million bu, with the new crop at 765 million bu. It’ll be interesting to see how the USDA plays with these numbers for their satisfaction.

The grain trade has seen quite the flush over the past several weeks, but Monday brought about a bid in corn soybeans and wheat that has stopped the daily slide, but recovery rallies have been shallow with sellers quickly showing up on 10/$0.15 bounces on corn and beans, while wheat has seen a recovery of 25-$0.30, with the latter seeing immediate and aggressive selling on those recoveries.

Today gives us the carryout news, while June 30 brings the acreage adjustments, if any. The other two factors will be whether the weather takes a dramatic shift (good or bad) at the opening of July, and when China starts to announce a lowering of tariffs (this will occur), which would supersede the start of a buying campaign for the promised Chinese acquisition of 25 MMTs of new crop beans and $17 billion in agricultural product purchases.

Given the military actions taking place by Pres. Trump against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed. What traders are not anticipating (as they can’t see beyond a three-hour trading session) is that 85% of the fertilizer utilized in Brazil comes from the Persian Gulf. Planting decisions are starting to be made for fall planting which starts in just over two months, and with the lack of a banking industry like the US has, their high input costs and questionable availability of needed inputs, along with the super El Niño announced and acknowledged yesterday that is started, South America is going to have a tough row to hoe, so to speak, this fall in trying to maintain annual record production.

Cattle Overview

Live and feeder cattle futures pushed higher yesterday, but feeders still slipped back late in the session to stay at or just under a significant moving average marker called the 20-day MA. The feeder index slipped $0.14 yesterday to $368.06. Meanwhile, the negotiated fed cattle trade was again quiet, with a small test in the north at $402 off $3, while trade in the South remains quiet with a firm outlook.

August live cattle over the past week created support at 234, with resistance at 245; the rest is a pinball machine. August feeder cattle have stalled out under 358, with initial support at 349-350, which has held for two sessions in a row, with 344 as the next ledge of support. For the NWS, 335 has been the defined low from the volume blowout after a month’s worth of selling. The NWS announcement traded that low, with a vicious outside-range recovery day, as feeder cattle traversed $20 in that one-day recovery.

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Any Questions and to inquire about Livestock Risk

Protection Insurance Call: 701-222-0221

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.

📈 Grains Continue Their Recovery Rally

• Grain markets posted gains for the third consecutive session

• Overnight trade was where most of the excitement happened:

  • Wheat was up 14–15¢

  • Corn gained 5–6¢

  • Soybeans were up as much as 15¢

• During the day session:

  • Producer selling emerged

  • Elevators sold grain against farmer sales

  • Gains were trimmed significantly

• 📌 Main takeaway:

  • Buyers showed up overnight

  • Sellers showed up during the day

🌾 Wheat Supported by Disease Concerns

• Wheat led the overnight rally

• Key concern:

  • Developing scab risk in soft red winter wheat areas

• Weather pattern:

  • Heavy rains across:

    • Missouri

    • Southern Illinois

    • Indiana

    • Ohio

  • Followed by temperatures:

    • 7–15° below normal next week

• 📌 Scab thrives under these conditions

• Market attitude:

  • Traders are aware of the risk

  • But want to see actual crop damage before aggressively bidding prices higher

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Grain Overview

The grain trade rose overnight, with wheat leading the recovery. Monday has proven to be another significant low point for the grain trade, prompting a recovery (reflex) rally. This rally was accentuated at 6:00 a.m. CST this morning when Pres. Trump flipped on his comments that a deal is all within days, to saying we may have to put more strikes against Iran to get them to compromise. This pushed wheat to a new weekly recovery high, while corn and soybeans challenged their weekly highs.

After a prolonged selloff, soybean products are finally offering the soy complex a measure of support. Soybean futures have been under heavy pressure, closing lower in 15 of the last 18 sessions, including 8 straight losses. While the break has improved the position of US soybeans in export markets, South American supplies continue to be the lower cost option for global buyers. The recent price action serves as a reminder of how far out of line US soybean values had become compared to competing origins.

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• Corn attempted a modest rebound today after recent heavy liquidation

• Another flash export sale was announced:

  • Providing some support to the market

• July corn:

  • Up ¼¢ → 4.19

• December corn:

  • Down ¾¢ → 4.45¼

• 📌 Important note:

  • USDA has already sold about 98% of projected corn exports

  • Many traders expect USDA to lower carryout estimates in upcoming reports

• Next key event:

  Serious about ag markets? Go premium - just $5 a month.

  • June WASDE Report on Thursday

🌱 Soybeans Still Struggling

• Beans continue to show very little buying enthusiasm

• July soybeans:

  • Down 2¾¢ → 11.13

• November soybeans:

  • Down 4¼¢ → 11.31¾

• 📉 Market concerns:

  • Large index fund ownership remains in the market

  • Additional liquidation is still possible

• Soybean oil:

  • Up 30 points

  • Supported by EPA biofuel-related supply concerns

• Canola:

  • Slightly lower

Read more

June 9, 2026

Grain Overview

Wheat and corn futures are seeing mild strength this morning, as the freefall in grain values for the last two weeks came to an end on Monday (wheat mostly on Friday), and the basketball bounce is at hand. Both spot and December corn nosedived right into multi-year support levels yesterday (410 July and 440 Dec), while wheat values, for the most part, retraced the rally that began in April. Soybeans are steady, but no buying interest has materialized there yet.

The US spring planting season is largely complete, and attention is shifting to crop conditions. Corn ratings held steady last week, while soybean ratings slipped 1%, despite expectations for improvement. Weather forecasts remain mixed, with above-normal temperatures across much of the country and several rounds of rainfall. For areas receiving moisture, conditions remain favorable for crop development. However, stress will begin to build in regions that miss these rain events. The heat across the Midwest and Delta will last for a couple of days, and then temperatures will plummet to 10-15° below normal next week. This will be a problem for ripening wheat, which is now at risk for scab.

Recent price weakness has also sparked renewed export interest. Attention now turns to Thursday’s USDA June WASDE report, which is expected to generate increased positioning ahead of its release. While few major balance sheet adjustments are anticipated (except that we are already at 98% of corn export sales commitments through September 1), the report will provide fresh data for the market to evaluate. This morning, the US dollar and energy markets are weaker, while equities are trading higher ahead of the opening bell.

As expected, corn farmers have shut off cash sales, causing the basis to improve now. Demand for ethanol producers is strong, given massive profit potential at the moment, especially with crude oil not having collapsed as corn values have. (E15 is on the front burner with Senate leader Thune indicating it can be brought to a vote in the Senate). Export demand is also favorable, with the exception of soybeans, as they await China’s action to lower its tariffs, indicating that its buying program for 25 MMTs of new-crop supplies will get underway. It’s coming; it’s just that traders don’t have the patience that the Chinese can exude.

Cattle Overview

Yesterday’s cattle trade was again volatile, with the sharply higher start met with a collapsing price range during the day, closing sharply lower. The USDA announced another three NWS cases within the general area of the first one, along with a dog. Headline fears are that as consumers see more of this, demand may dip. It never has to be proven for the board to do this; it’s just the thought of it until proven wrong. It’s also rumored that Cargill will close the Fort Morgan plant, which was also a big negative for the live cattle trade yesterday.

In all the hubbub yesterday, the cash feeder index was up $5.63 at $367.01. We are now back to wide premiums, with June live cattle indicating that, if they are correct in their pricing, a $ 10-$12 drop in cash is anticipated over the next 22 days. Another $10 would be added to that decline into August.

Yesterday, August feeder cattle held very important support in the 349-350 range, and if a recovery bounce does not occur from this level, then your next cascading break has support at 344-345. August live cattle had tumbled through their support yesterday of 239-240, with the next layer near 234, last Friday’s low. Much deeper than that, and you have an all-out liquidating phase, similar to what the grain trade produced over the past two weeks. Cracks and demand over the next week, and if it does not soften by much, the board will have a serious discount problem that will get dealt with.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited. Provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.

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🌽 Grain Markets Continue Their Washout

• Grain futures remained under heavy pressure today

• Main factors weighing on the market:

  • Continued fund liquidation

  • Lack of immediate Chinese buying

  • Improving Midwest weather

  • A surging U.S. dollar

• 📌 Market sentiment remains:

  • “Sell first, ask questions later”

💵 Strong Jobs Report Boosts the Dollar

• Today’s employment report came in much stronger than expected

• Jobs added:

  • 172,000

  • Expectations were only 80,000

• Unemployment:

  • Remained at 4.3%

• Dollar Index:

  • Climbed above 100

• 📈 Why it matters:

  • Stronger dollar hurts U.S. export competitiveness

  • Markets are now pricing in:

    • Fewer rate cuts

    • Possibly no cuts at all this year

🌽 Corn Pushes Toward Major Support

• Corn continues sliding lower

• July corn:

  • Down 8¼¢ → 4.16¼

• December corn:

  • Down 6¾¢ → 4.45

• 📌 Corn now approaching levels last seen around:

  • The bearish January USDA report

  • Fall 2024 price levels

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Grain Overview

The grain trade opened higher Sunday night as crude oil was sharply higher, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the Iranian conflict was intensifying over the weekend with more missile strikes from Iran. The selling vigilantes immediately showed up and trimmed the gains, eventually pushing corn and soybeans to new lows in the current decline after it was announced at 6:00 a.m. CST that a cease-fire was underway among Iran, Israel, and the US. The White House continues to claim the war is over and that operations are nearly complete, but these developments cast more doubt on those statements.

The wheat complex is trading mixed-higher in late overnight action, while corn and soybeans continue to struggle. Wheat is finding support amid a growing list of disappointing crop reports worldwide as adverse weather chips away at production prospects.

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